Study: Flu shots in elderly don't cut mortality rate  By Robert Roos

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Feb 16, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Researchers who tracked national data on influenza vaccination rates and mortality in elderly people from 1968 through 2001 say they could find no evidence that flu shots reduced death rates.

A number of previous studies have suggested that flu shots could reduce the number of community-living elderly people who die in winter by as much as 50%, according to the report by Lone Simonsen, PhD, of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and colleagues from NIH and other organizations.

But the authors say they could find no evidence that increasing flu vaccination coverage among people 65 and older lowered mortality rates. Further, they concluded that the number of flu-related deaths in the elderly from 1968 through 2001 was never more than 10% of all winter deaths, suggesting that flu immunization could have only a relatively small effect on total death rates.

"We conclude . . . that there are not enough influenza-related deaths to support the conclusion that vaccination can reduce total winter mortality among the US elderly population by as much as half," states the article, published yesterday in Archives of Internal Medicine.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends flu shots for everyone aged 50 and older, as well as young children, pregnant women, people with chronic health problems, healthcare workers, and people caring for small babies. (Because of the vaccine supply problems this season, the agency has advised healthy people in the 50-to-64 age-group to forgo the shots, though that restriction has been dropped in some areas.)

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